probability 0x74f1…16a8

View on Polymarket ↗

funded by 0x8f5b…1280(contract/relayer)

Sharp Score

54.3

Win Rate

45.0%

PnL 90d

+$36.6K

Avg CLV

—

Resolved Trades

Why this score

Closing Line Value50 × 35%

Realized PnL (90d)79 × 25%

Win Rate57 × 15%

Sizing Discipline14 × 15%

Longevity / Activity66 × 10%

Components shrunk toward 50 by sample size (n = 40 resolved) — small samples can't produce extreme scores.

Realized PnL 90d

+$36.6K

Capital Deployed

$99.5K

Resolved

Win Rate

45.0%

Excess Win

+6.4

Avg Entry

39¢

Cumulative Realized PnL · 90d

Best: +$4K — Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Worst: −$2.8K — Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Open Positions

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No50¢ → 96¢$57.3K+$27.3K

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes16¢ → 94¢$10.5K+$8.8K

Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?Yes84¢ → 100¢$3.7K+$597

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No45¢ → 43¢$2.9K−$171

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes50¢ → 5¢$2.7K−$27.3K

Funding · 90d

No deposits or withdrawals in the window.

All Fills · 90d

BUYWill the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes@ 8¢$213m ago

BUYWill the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes@ 8¢$313m ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?No@ 78¢$52h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?No@ 78¢$42h ago

BUYWill Newcastle United finish in the top 5 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?Yes@ 10¢$23h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?No@ 79¢$65h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?No@ 79¢$55h ago

BUYWill Hull City finish in last place in the 2026-27 English Premier League season?Yes@ 17¢$1010h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?No@ 79¢$711h ago

BUYWill the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes@ 79¢$812h ago

BUYWill the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes@ 79¢$1412h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No@ 42¢$212h ago

BUYWill Leeds United finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?Yes@ 5¢$113h ago

BUYNext Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?Yes@ 82¢$7615h ago

BUYWill the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 17, 2026?Yes@ 54¢$815h ago

BUYSydney Roosters vs. Cronulla SharksCronulla Sharks@ 28¢$116h ago

BUYWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes@ 40¢$919h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No@ 43¢$319h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No@ 43¢$720h ago

BUYWill Cincinnati Bengals win the 2026 AFC North?Yes@ 32¢$321h ago

BUYWill the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No@ 41¢$1321h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes@ 40¢$221h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes@ 40¢$2421h ago

BUYMahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?Yes@ 13¢$1621h ago

BUYWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes@ 41¢$321h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No@ 43¢$1821h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No@ 43¢$721h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No@ 43¢$321h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No@ 43¢$322h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No@ 43¢$422h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No@ 43¢$722h ago

BUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No@ 41¢$122h ago

BUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No@ 41¢$322h ago

BUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No@ 41¢$122h ago

BUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No@ 41¢$1123h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No@ 43¢$423h ago

BUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No@ 41¢$223h ago

BUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No@ 41¢$823h ago

BUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No@ 41¢$223h ago

BUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No@ 41¢$323h ago

BUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No@ 41¢$223h ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No@ 43¢$21d ago

BUYWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes@ 33¢$51d ago

BUYWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes@ 33¢$61d ago

BUYWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes@ 33¢$51d ago

BUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No@ 42¢$31d ago

BUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No@ 42¢$21d ago

BUY2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes@ 30¢$21d ago

BUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo@ 40¢$21d ago

BUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo@ 40¢$31d ago

BUY2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes@ 30¢$21d ago

BUY2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes@ 30¢$51d ago

BUYWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes@ 34¢$21d ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No@ 34¢$21d ago

BUYWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes@ 42¢$91d ago

BUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No@ 42¢$131d ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No@ 43¢$41d ago

BUYWill Coventry City finish in last place in the 2026-27 English Premier League season?No@ 53¢$41d ago

BUYWill Coventry City finish in last place in the 2026-27 English Premier League season?No@ 53¢$251d ago

BUYWill Coventry City finish in last place in the 2026-27 English Premier League season?No@ 53¢$271d ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No@ 43¢$121d ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No@ 43¢$191d ago

BUYWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes@ 44¢$131d ago

LOADING 90-DAY POLYMARKET HISTORY…

Prints on Our Tape

46Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?NO @ 91¢$1,3832d ago

31Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?NO @ 84¢$8434d ago

25T20 Lanka Premier League: Kandy Royals vs Galle GallantsGALLE GALLANTS @ 55¢$61150d ago

25T20 Lanka Premier League: Kandy Royals vs Galle GallantsGALLE GALLANTS @ 61¢$67850d ago

26T20 Lanka Premier League: Kandy Royals vs Galle GallantsGALLE GALLANTS @ 63¢$68650d ago

Not investment advice.