0x84d4…77a9

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Sharp Score

33.6

Win Rate

38.1%

PnL 90d

−$5.1K

Avg CLV

—

Resolved Trades

Why this score

Closing Line Value50 × 35%

Realized PnL (90d)33 × 25%

Win Rate8 × 15%

Sizing Discipline8 × 15%

Longevity / Activity55 × 10%

Components shrunk toward 50 by sample size (n = 84 resolved) — small samples can't produce extreme scores.

Realized PnL 90d

−$5.1K

Capital Deployed

$6.5K

Resolved

Win Rate

38.1%

Excess Win

-27.9

Avg Entry

66¢

Cumulative Realized PnL · 90d

Best: +$99 — Spread: CF Pachuca (-1.5)Worst: −$195 — Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Open Positions

Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?No12¢ → 22¢$105+$48

Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?Yes2¢ → 3¢$63+$25

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No53¢ → 46¢$59−$10

Will Chattanooga Red Wolves SC win on 2026-08-01?Yes58¢ → 60¢$21+$1

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes7¢ → 5¢$21−$11

Will OpenAI’s valuation be less than $600B at the end of October 2026?Yes42¢ → 5¢$11−$88

Chattanooga Red Wolves SC vs. Spokane Velocity FC: O/U 1.5Under23¢ → 40¢$9+$4

Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?No27¢ → 24¢$8−$1

FK Auda Riga vs. Ogre United: O/U 4.5Over28¢ → 50¢$6+$3

FK Auda Riga vs. Ogre United: FK Auda Riga O/U 2.5Under50¢ → 50¢$5+$0

Real Cartagena FC vs. Bogota FC: Bogota FC O/U 0.5Over54¢ → 48¢$4−$0

Will Elche finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 LaLiga season?Yes87¢ → 3¢$3−$81

Will Arsenal qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?No11¢ → 1¢$2−$21

Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Yasmine KabbajYasmine Kabbaj68¢ → 100¢$2+$1

Funding · 90d

No deposits or withdrawals in the window.

All Fills · 90d

SELLGame 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?Even@ 1¢$04d ago

SELLWill Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes@ 5¢$205d ago

SELLChicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Second half draw?Yes@ 19¢$05d ago

SELLChattanooga Red Wolves SC vs. Spokane Velocity FC: Chattanooga Red Wolves SC O/U 2.5Under@ 1¢$06d ago

SELLChattanooga Red Wolves SC vs. Spokane Velocity FC: Chattanooga Red Wolves SC O/U 1.5Over@ 1¢$06d ago

SELLWill Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes@ 1¢$08d ago

SELLWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Yes@ 1¢$08d ago

SELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Yes@ 1¢$08d ago

SELLChattanooga Red Wolves SC vs. Spokane Velocity FC: O/U 1.5Under@ 10¢$08d ago

SELLWill Anthropic not IPO before 2028?Yes@ 1¢$38d ago

SELLChattanooga Red Wolves SC vs. Spokane Velocity FC: O/U 4.5Under@ 10¢$28d ago

SELLWill Anthropic not IPO before 2028?Yes@ 1¢$38d ago

SELLChattanooga Red Wolves SC vs. Spokane Velocity FC: O/U 1.5Under@ 15¢$38d ago

SELLChattanooga Red Wolves SC vs. Spokane Velocity FC: O/U 1.5Over@ 5¢$19d ago

SELLWill Anthropic not IPO before 2028?Yes@ 1¢$39d ago

SELLWill Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes@ 1¢$09d ago

SELLChattanooga Red Wolves SC vs. Spokane Velocity FC: O/U 2.5Under@ 10¢$39d ago

SELLWill Christian Democrats (KD) win at least 9% of all valid votes?Yes@ 1¢$09d ago

SELLWill Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes@ 1¢$09d ago

SELLWill Centre Party (C) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?No@ 48¢$29d ago

SELLIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Yes@ 7¢$19d ago

SELLWill Axis launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes@ 6¢$19d ago

SELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No@ 17¢$19d ago

SELLWill Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?No@ 23¢$19d ago

SELLWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?No@ 11¢$19d ago

SELLWill Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes@ 2¢$19d ago

SELLWill FK Chornomorets Odesa win on 2026-08-08?No@ 50¢$39d ago

SELLWill Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?No@ 41¢$29d ago

SELLRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Yes@ 63¢$29d ago

SELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No@ 15¢$19d ago

SELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No@ 69¢$19d ago

SELLExtended FDV above $150M one day after launch?No@ 40¢$09d ago

SELLWill “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?No@ 12¢$09d ago

SELLWill Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes@ 4¢$09d ago

SELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?No@ 3¢$09d ago

SELLWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?No@ 4¢$09d ago

SELLCambria listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE?Yes@ 13¢$09d ago

SELLWill SPD win 26-29 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?No@ 66¢$09d ago

SELLWill Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31?No@ 79¢$09d ago

SELLWill Sinja Münzberg win the next Hannover Region presidential election?Yes@ 1¢$09d ago

SELLWill Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No@ 76¢$09d ago

SELLWill Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31?Yes@ 22¢$19d ago

SELLWill Harrison Ford – “Shrinking” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?No@ 56¢$19d ago

SELLPredict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes@ 69¢$19d ago

SELLWill AfD win 26-28 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes@ 8¢$19d ago

SELLWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?No@ 10¢$19d ago

SELLWill Levante finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 LaLiga season?Yes@ 1¢$19d ago

SELLWill Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?No@ 12¢$19d ago

SELLWill Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No@ 24¢$19d ago

SELLSpread: FK Auda Riga (-1.5)Ogre United@ 1¢$09d ago

SELLNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes@ 20¢$19d ago

SELLWill Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC end in a draw?Yes@ 23¢$19d ago

SELLBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No@ 80¢$29d ago

SELLWill Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes@ 6¢$19d ago

SELLWill Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?No@ 34¢$29d ago

SELLIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?No@ 91¢$29d ago

SELLWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?No@ 6¢$29d ago

SELLWill the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026?No@ 86¢$29d ago

SELLWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No@ 93¢$29d ago

SELLRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?No@ 36¢$29d ago

SELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No@ 20¢$29d ago

SELLWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?No@ 23¢$29d ago

SELLWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes@ 7¢$29d ago

SELLWill Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2028?Yes@ 25¢$29d ago

SELLWill the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?No@ 67¢$29d ago

SELLWill Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No@ 46¢$29d ago

SELLWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?No@ 89¢$29d ago

SELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?No@ 79¢$29d ago

SELLWill Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals?No@ 89¢$29d ago

SELLWill Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?No@ 91¢$29d ago

SELLWill the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Yes@ 22¢$29d ago

SELLWill Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes@ 5¢$29d ago

SELLWill Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?No@ 94¢$29d ago

SELLWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes@ 63¢$29d ago

SELLWill Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw?Yes@ 25¢$29d ago

SELLWill OpenAI’s valuation be less than $600B at the end of October 2026?Yes@ 1¢$09d ago

SELLWill the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 110-114 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Yes@ 12¢$29d ago

SELLWill the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?No@ 97¢$29d ago

SELLWill Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No@ 52¢$29d ago

SELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Yes@ 3¢$29d ago

SELLWill Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026?Yes@ 2¢$29d ago

SELLWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No@ 11¢$29d ago

SELLWill Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?No@ 77¢$29d ago

SELLBerlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD?CDU@ 55¢$29d ago

SELLWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes@ 13¢$39d ago

SELLWill FK Auda Riga vs. Ogre United end in a draw?No@ 1¢$09d ago

SELLWill AfD win 29-31 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes@ 22¢$39d ago

SELLBank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?No@ 98¢$39d ago

SELLWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes@ 20¢$39d ago

SELLAndrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?Yes@ 18¢$39d ago

SELLWill Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?No@ 62¢$39d ago

SELLWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No@ 21¢$39d ago

SELLAndrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?No@ 81¢$39d ago

SELLWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?No@ 71¢$79d ago

SELLMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Yes@ 16¢$39d ago

LOADING 90-DAY POLYMARKET HISTORY…

Prints on Our Tape

27Málaga CF vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: O/U 2.5UNDER @ 60¢$91924d ago

34Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersMILWAUKEE BREWERS @ 57¢$1,78827d ago

26St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ 53¢$89131d ago

28St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ 53¢$91231d ago

24St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ 53¢$89131d ago

25St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ 53¢$91231d ago

39San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansCLEVELAND GUARDIANS @ 55¢$1,42434d ago

43Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City RoyalsCHICAGO CUBS @ 60¢$2,31540d ago

38Atlanta Braves vs. New York YankeesNEW YORK YANKEES @ 57¢$2,17641d ago

39Atlanta Braves vs. New York YankeesNEW YORK YANKEES @ 57¢$2,17641d ago

42Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5UNDER @ 48¢$2,22042d ago

43Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5UNDER @ 48¢$2,22042d ago

44Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesBALTIMORE ORIOLES @ 53¢$2,53843d ago

45Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5OVER @ 57¢$2,33044d ago

27St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5UNDER @ 47¢$1,11145d ago

26St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5UNDER @ 47¢$1,11145d ago

37Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsMIAMI MARLINS @ 52¢$1,79846d ago

38Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsMIAMI MARLINS @ 52¢$1,79846d ago

37Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsMIAMI MARLINS @ 52¢$1,79846d ago

29Mubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Rafael JodarRAFAEL JODAR @ 44¢$2,00046d ago

Not investment advice.