ArmageddonRewardsBilly 0xc8ab…6418

View on Polymarket ↗

funded by 0x1929…d215(contract/relayer)

Sharp Score

50.4

Win Rate

22.7%

PnL 90d

+$560K

Avg CLV

—

Resolved Trades

Why this score

Closing Line Value50 × 35%

Realized PnL (90d)87 × 25%

Win Rate27 × 15%

Sizing Discipline13 × 15%

Longevity / Activity51 × 10%

Components shrunk toward 50 by sample size (n = 44 resolved) — small samples can't produce extreme scores.

Realized PnL 90d

+$560K

Capital Deployed

$1.1M

Resolved

Win Rate

22.7%

Excess Win

-20.5

Avg Entry

43¢

Cumulative Realized PnL · 90d

Best: +$2K — Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Worst: −$12.2K — Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Open Positions

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No50¢ → 78¢$195K+$69.9K

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes45¢ → 50¢$59.5K+$5.5K

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes50¢ → 22¢$55.1K−$69.9K

Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?No82¢ → 81¢$41.8K−$549

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No87¢ → 90¢$31.6K+$863

Funding · 90d

No deposits or withdrawals in the window.

All Fills · 90d

BUYWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes@ 86¢$8605s ago

BUYWill Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes@ 79¢$3951m ago

BUYWill Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes@ 80¢$2741m ago

BUYWill Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Yes@ 73¢$1461m ago

BUYWill Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Yes@ 74¢$1111m ago

SELLSituational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?No@ 39¢$246m ago

BUYUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?No@ 86¢$8315m ago

BUYUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?No@ 87¢$55015m ago

BUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?No@ 68¢$34021m ago

SELLWill Victoria DiMuzio advance to the Quarterfinals in Women's Singles at the 2026 Veolia Arizona Open?No@ 76¢$7626m ago

SELLWill Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?No@ 54¢$327m ago

SELLWill Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?No@ 95¢$5527m ago

BUYWill over 58 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?No@ 89¢$3627m ago

SELLWill Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?Yes@ 28¢$2830m ago

SELLAnother GTA VI trailer released by September 30?No@ 94¢$41532m ago

SELLWill OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026?Yes@ 62¢$1534m ago

SELLWill OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026?Yes@ 62¢$334m ago

SELLWill OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?No@ 18¢$2635m ago

BUYWill Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No@ 94¢$4735m ago

BUYWill Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?Yes@ 89¢$16136m ago

BUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No@ 87¢$6140m ago

SELLWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Yes@ 92¢$2540m ago

BUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No@ 87¢$1741m ago

SELLWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No@ 8¢$2641m ago

BUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes@ 16¢$042m ago

BUYWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?No@ 95¢$5743m ago

SELLWill Andrei Daescu advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 Veolia Arizona Open?No@ 97¢$9744m ago

BUYWill the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.00% before 2027?No@ 90¢$5245m ago

BUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No@ 66¢$1045m ago

BUYWill the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?No@ 88¢$5845m ago

BUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes@ 54¢$10849m ago

SELLWill the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?No@ 34¢$14349m ago

BUYWill the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes@ 63¢$2852m ago

BUYIran leadership change by September 30?No@ 98¢$5656m ago

BUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No@ 66¢$257m ago

BUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No@ 66¢$19858m ago

BUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No@ 87¢$60959m ago

BUYWill 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?No@ 81¢$459m ago

BUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No@ 66¢$759m ago

SELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No@ 88¢$21h ago

SELLWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No@ 89¢$1,7801h ago

SELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Yes@ 31¢$161h ago

BUYWill 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?No@ 81¢$21h ago

SELLWill the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the October meeting?Yes@ 35¢$31h ago

BUYWill Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?No@ 59¢$111h ago

SELLWill LSU make College Football Playoff Semifinals?No@ 64¢$341h ago

BUYReserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?Yes@ 50¢$61h ago

BUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes@ 44¢$881h ago

SELLWill CDU win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?Yes@ 36¢$181h ago

SELLWill the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.00% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?No@ 81¢$101h ago

SELLWill the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.00% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?No@ 81¢$81h ago

SELLWill the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.00% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?No@ 81¢$161h ago

SELLWill the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.00% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?No@ 81¢$81h ago

SELLWill the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.00% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?No@ 81¢$91h ago

BUYWill Tyra Hurricane Black / Noe Khlif advance to the Quarterfinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Veolia Arizona Open?Yes@ 83¢$401h ago

SELLWill Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Yes@ 56¢$171h ago

BUYWill Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?Yes@ 89¢$171h ago

BUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes@ 80¢$2001h ago

SELLWill the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?Yes@ 82¢$861h ago

BUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes@ 90¢$2641h ago

BUYWill Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Yes@ 74¢$371h ago

SELLGTA VI released by November 30?Yes@ 91¢$2111h ago

SELLWill Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes@ 62¢$6201h ago

BUYWill Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No@ 88¢$1761h ago

BUYWill Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No@ 89¢$1781h ago

BUYWill none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?Yes@ 85¢$341h ago

BUYWill none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?Yes@ 85¢$371h ago

BUYWill none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?Yes@ 85¢$1101h ago

BUYWill none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?Yes@ 85¢$341h ago

BUYWill none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?Yes@ 85¢$4251h ago

BUYWill none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?Yes@ 85¢$341h ago

BUYWill Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?No@ 89¢$1781h ago

BUYWill Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?No@ 90¢$1801h ago

BUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?No@ 84¢$31h ago

SELLWill Linke win 40 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes@ 38¢$621h ago

SELLWill Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?Yes@ 93¢$2761h ago

SELLWill the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?No@ 46¢$201h ago

BUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?No@ 15¢$02h ago

SELLWill Federico Staksrud advance to the Semifinals in Men's Singles at the 2026 Veolia Arizona Open?No@ 40¢$322h ago

SELLWill 'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana win the Ongo Niua 17 by-election?Yes@ 24¢$12h ago

SELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Yes@ 31¢$322h ago

BUYWill Sofia Sewing / Catherine Parenteau advance to the Semifinals in Women's Doubles at the 2026 Veolia Arizona Open?No@ 49¢$492h ago

BUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?No@ 84¢$22h ago

BUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?No@ 85¢$1,7002h ago

BUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?No@ 84¢$1482h ago

BUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?No@ 84¢$3712h ago

BUYWill AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No@ 43¢$862h ago

SELLWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No@ 71¢$3552h ago

SELLWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No@ 70¢$3502h ago

BUYWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No@ 69¢$672h ago

SELLWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic@ 94¢$1182h ago

SELLWill AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No@ 45¢$52h ago

SELLWill Republicans sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections?Yes@ 57¢$342h ago

BUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No@ 66¢$1852h ago

BUYWill none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?Yes@ 85¢$92h ago

BUYWill none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?Yes@ 85¢$512h ago

BUYWill none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?Yes@ 85¢$262h ago

BUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $180 in September?No@ 34¢$62h ago

BUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $180 in September?No@ 34¢$112h ago

BUYWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Yes@ 74¢$1482h ago

LOADING 90-DAY POLYMARKET HISTORY…

Prints on Our Tape

30Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?NO @ 81¢$1,62055d ago

26Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?NO @ 82¢$70760d ago

Not investment advice.